Help Find Steve Fossett

Please help find Steve Fossett! Steve's disappearance has been all over the news, but so far no trace of him has been found. You can help search, by using Amazon Mechanical Turk. Several organizations have pulled together to use recent satellite imagery for this effort. The image on the right-hand side of this page is one of the actual images that I just looked at as part of my contribution to the search. Have to say that some of this terrain is incredibly rugged.

Here are some highlights of the imagery, copied from one of the "HITs" in Amazon Mechanical Turk:

• The images shown below are recent and of the relevant search area.
• Each tile is roughly 256x256 pixels, representing an area of 85m or 278ft square.
• Steve's airplane will appear in the images as a 30pixel wingspan and 21 pixels in length.
• We're asking between 5 and 10 people to review the same images so we can be certain nothing was missed.

A cool feature of this particular set of hits is that you can view the satellite imagery in Google Earth. But a note about that... I am using a new computer, and Google Earth was not installed. I had to restart Internet Explorer before the links functioned properly for Google Earth integration. Think it's a mime type association issue.

This search effort may sound familiar--a few months ago the same sort of effort was launched to look for missing Microsoft Researcher Jim Gray. Unfortunately no trace of Jim was ever found.

The basic idea of Amazon Mechanical Turk is to deliver a highly scalable workforce for tasks. In this case, a large number of satellite images were injected into the system for people to review. Because each image is made available to multiple people for review, there is a de-facto quality check built into the workflow. While the example at hand is unfortunate in its circumstances, its existence does showcase the innovation of Amazon Mechanical Turk. Take a look at the other work in the system to see how others leverage this workforce.

I'm a pilot, and within the General Aviation community there is a long-standing debate around the subject of ELTs, which is short for Emergency Locater Transmitters. These beacons were originally required by law after a couple on members of Congress went missing in Alaska. (They never were found.)

The original beacons were simple analog radio signals that transmit on 121.5 MHz, the universal emergency frequency for aircraft. Satellites in orbit also monitor for signals on this frequency. A number of pilots maintain that any beacon at all is a waste of money; if you're old enough, this is reminiscent of the airbag and seatbelt rhetoric of years ago. The problem with the old technology is false alarms: over 100,000 PER YEAR.

Modern digital technology is now used, often coupled with a GPS receiver to make it much easier to pinpoint a downed aircraft. Problem is that these new beacons are extremely expensive. Anything certified for aircraft is insanely priced--and currently 406 MHz beacons cost over $1,000 per plane. That's a lot in aircraft that are flown occasionally for recreational use.

If you want more info on the two technologies, I've posted an article about the two ELT versions on an aviation website that I run called PopularAviation.com.

Finally, as a pilot who has participated in a number of Search and Rescue missions, the probability of the wreckage looking like an airplane is low. This image shows what the plane would look like if it is resting horizontally after a normal landing. In fact wreckage usually looks more like random junk. Anything that looks out of place should be considered "suspect" in these images.

Mike

Comments

[Marie-Lynn Richard]

Thanks for the specific information on this task. I have been an evangelist of the platform for many years but most people do not really get Mechanical Turk unless they see it in action. Perhaps this effort will help people understand the importance of using MT for quick systematic collaborative effort.

[Jeff G]

So who or where do you contact if you have found something off the turk image?

[Roo Reynolds]

@Jeff G: each image gives you a choice of two options: "Yes, this image contains foreign objects that should be looked at more closely" or "No, this image contains nothing of interest". According to the text in the notes "marked images will be sent to a team of specialists who will determine if they contain information on the whereabouts of Steve Fossett."

[scott]

maybe the millionaire should have invested in a beacon of some sort.....not been by himself....logged where he was going to fly? call me crazy

[Lars Johnson]

While searching on google earth I found what apears to be a dabree field on a mountain, including a wing, please pass these coordinates on 38 degrees 01' 18.39" N 119 degrees 27' 12.80" W altitude is 10,065 ft

[Gintaras]

I found plain in _38˚29'28.70˝N__119˚04'27.23˝W

[OGER Liliane]

38°58'54"20 N-119°33'47"35 O avion en mille morceaux

[Carrie]

Using the fly to bar type in Burning Man NV up north you will See the ARTS at the south end of the lake bed. Fly into the lake bed to see that our satalite photos of the weekend events are pretty darn clear compared to their other digital photos. I am kind of ticked about that we are looking for a plane out there and yet I can about see what a person is wearing in that area. But really What you are seeing in the shape of a sundial is the event known by the arts as The Burning Man. This event I have learned happens each year and is growing fast. About 40,000 people were down there making a nice pattern in the sand.

Why am I telling you all about this...???

Well let us all forget about a crashed plane and that Steve could be gone. Bend your mind around maybe he was there, for a night or two and doesn't want to be found. If you look you are going to see more than one plane.. Yes there is a landing strip. Just south and east of the sundial of campers. I do not know know Steve and the idea that he is "missing with out a trace" and that he said sail south and this event is to the north of where he took off well I hope he is out there with other folks who are out there as well.

Just a thought.. Oh and go look and see how many air planes you see.

[Tom Stark]

I have been reporting this sighting since
Saturday, but there doesn't seem to be anywhere to officially report a good sighting. I have given it to Washoe County Sheriff's SAR (rpedersen)but apparently they have wind problems for their choppers.
Coordinates are: 38 45 07.93 N 118 49 50.56W. There appears to be part or more of a human torso at: 38 45 07.12N 118 49 49.21
Is there any way to get a clearer picture below 400 ft?

[GEOFF]

possible plane down 38 08 50,59 N 119 33 24. 40 W
steve fossett?

[Richard Hamilton]

Has Amazon considered using the techniques described by James Surowiecki in "The Wisdom of Crowds" as a supplement to the visual search?

Specifically, what I'm think of is to have people look over the known information about the flight, the aircraft, and the area around the ranch, then ask them to independently give their best guess as to where the plane is. MTurk would then aggregate the responses and come up with a potential search area that reflects the collective wisdom of the participants.

In Surowiecki's book, he describes a search for a Navy submarine that used this technique successfully.

I suspect that the key to doing this would be for people to think independently from the visual search; i.e., to instead consider where they think Mr. Fossett might have decided to fly, what the terrain looks like, etc., and discount for the moment the possible visual hits that the current MTurk activity has uncovered.

I don't suggest that this technique would be better than the current activity (it might be considerably worse), But, I think it might be worth a try.

[Charles Twardy]

Mike,
If it's not already being done (even if it is), I'm interested in integrating these image searches with formal search theory, so that they can merge with the probability calculations done by search managers, and tasking that can be done in software. We'd need to estimate detection parameters. Because you have found multiple targets, and you do multiple assignments per image, this may be possible with the data you've collected. And we could design experiments. You're probably busy right now. Write me when you have a chance?

[Charles Twardy]

@GEOFF: I have no knowledge about this search in particular, but I believe the CAP generally uses formal search theory, which begins with a probability map. As described in the accounts of the search for U.S.S. Scorpion, the initial probability estimates ideally combine several scenarios and several independent sources. In SAR, this is often called the "Mattson consensus", after a (1979?) paper by Col. Robert Mattson, who recognized the importance of averaging to help unbias this initial estimate.

[Rick]

As I've followed the disappearance and subsequent search for Fosset, I keep thinking that so many things with this story just don't make sense. For example, why would such an experienced and wealthy flyer take a trip in such an ill equipped and unprepared manner? Did Fossett want to leave an Amelia Earhart type mystery behind? Since the search parties have already covered 99% of the search space, perhaps they should look at the nearby and now abandoned Area 51. Or, perhaps they should look in the opposite direction, over the Pacific Ocean. Food for thought...

[James Evans]

I am a pilot (40 years) and have seen many crash / wreck/ landing sites, and there is one single engine aircraft, which appears intact wihtin the Steve Fosset search zone. I would check this out mysef, but I am 1500 miles away and someone closer can be there quicker. GO!
38°17'22.60"N 118°36'49.32"W

[James Evans]

I AM A PILOT SINCE 1967 AND HAVE SEEN MANY CRASH, WRECK AND LANDING SITES, AND HAVE LOCATED
A SINGLE ENGINE AIRCRAFT IN AN EXTREMELY REMOTE AREA WHERE THERE IS NO ORDINARY LANDING SURFACE, THE CRAFT IS INTACT AND THERE IS NO DEBRIS FIELD. 38°17'22.60"N 118°36'49.32"W
I AM LOCATED 1500 MILES FROM THE COORDINATES OTHERWISE I WOULD CHECK IT OUT MYSELF.

[g.kruk]

39°36'58.09"N 116°39'22.09"W
please look at this , i am sure this is a plane , it's not in the search area, but its 160 miles from reno

[Robert Pick]

38 17'32.54N 118 36'49.26W May be the same aircraft posted by James Evans Sept. 23. Aircraft is intact and no skid. Probable been here at least a rain season or more.